Wansart, J.; Kieckhäfer, K.; Walther, G.; Schnieder, E.; Spengler, T.:
Impact assessment in the automotive industry: mandatory market introduction of alternative powertrain technologies.
System Dynamics Review. 26(3), S. 239-261, July-September 2010.
Increasing numbers of regulatory measures are being introduced worldwide to reduce greenhouse gass emissions from the transportation sector. In California, whose low emission vehicle regulations have a leading position worldwide, automobile manufacturers must both reduce greenhouse gas emissions of their vehicle fleet (GHG regulations) and also sell increasing shares of new, so-called zero emission vehicles (ZEV regulations). Large civil penalties have to be paid by manufacturers in case of non-compliance.
The dynamic simulation model presented in this paper examines fundamental automobile manufacturer strategies for compliance with these regulatory requirements. Co-evolutionary development of customer behavior, vehicle types offered, powertrain technologies, and infrastructure coverage during the adjustment to those requirements is considered.
The model is applied to a case study considering the state of California. Results show that meeting requirements necessitates an early introduction of alternative powertrains in many vehicle segments. Feedback between GHG and ZEV regulations necessitate the development of joint compliance strategies. Recommendations for the automotive industry concerning appropriate strategies for complying with California’s regulations are derived.