Wansart, J.; Schnieder, E.:
Modeling market development of electric vehicles.
IEEE International Systems Conference , San Diego, USA, April 2010.
Abstract — Automobile powertrains are so far predominantly
based on internal combustion engines burning fossil fuels so far.
However, due to mandatory emission reduction and rising oil
prices hybrid and full electric vehicles are about to be introduced
in mass markets. Given their high costs, small range and missing
recharging infrastructure, electric vehicles do not seem to be
competitive enough compared to conventional powertrains to
gain significant market share. This paper examines how such an
infrastructure-dependent innovation can succeed on the long
term in competition with an incumbent technology. A dynamic
model is presented that contains cost, range, and infrastructure
development as dynamic effects which drive adoption. The model
is analyzed further in a simulation study, where the strength of
feedback effects is evaluated. From this study it has to be
concluded that it is primarily a quickly growing customer
awareness that enables long-term market growth for electric
vehicles. Quick cost reduction for batteries also has a significant
effect, but it is less significant than awareness.
Keywords: innovation adoption, diffusion, battery electric
vehicles, systems thinking, system dynamics