A1.1 - Scenarios for an Air Transport System in Alternative Environments in 2050 (ScenAIR2050)

How will the relationship between the demand for aviation services and e.g. ticket prices evolve into the future? How will external factors such as user’s ecological awareness, intermodality and emergence of new modes of transport affect this dynamic?

To answer these and other future-oriented questions, knowledge and data from different disciplines and stakeholders need to be collected and interpreted in a perspective-oriented way.

The project "Scenarios for Air Transport System in Alternative Futures (ScenAIR2050)" objective is to provide a multi-criteria decision support for the evaluation of technologies developed within the Cluster of Excellence and its research on pathways towards an energy efficient air transport system in 2050. Through the construction of e.g. exploratory foresight scenarios, the project team addresses the interaction of several sub-components of aviation in relation to societal changes in the medium to long term future.

In the project there is also the aim to offer sources of identified qualitative trends as well as quantifiable data on external factors that the ICA teams can use in their research process. Embedded in the overall picture of European aviation, different futures for an energy-efficient air transport system will be explored and refined. This provides the cluster partners with additional, often overlooked aspects and perspectives. Considering both qualitative and external factors in simulations and technical choices the future viability of innovative solutions is purported to be enhanced. 

As part of the research associated with ICA A, the project is concerned with the exploration of customer-related trends and the interaction with the following areas: societal and behavioural changes, technologies incl. matters concering airlines and airport management, global and regional economies, ecological conditions, as well as politics and legal regulations.

Given the likelihood of surcharges being imposed on airfare as a result of the implementation of innovations targeted at short-, medium-, and long-range aircraft, it is crucial for the SE²A research body to consider a range of perspectives on e.g. aviation business models and customer preferences, particularly in the context of 2050 and beyond.

This will include a study employing foresight scenarios at the passenger level on the relationship between the cost of air travel and the demand for air travel, and on the changes in mobility behaviour compared to the status quo .

The project employs a range of methods from the fields of foresight and design research to map potential future scenarios for the air transport system (ATS) up to the year 2050.

The team makes use of the classic foresight scenario technique, in addition to a range of multidisciplinary design research methods, with the objective of capturing developments in the air transport system and its potential futures in a systematic manner. The partners in the cluster are engaged in the process, offering input based on their respective areas of expertise, identifying additional questions, and evaluating scenarios.

The social, technological, economic, ecological and political factors, including trends in lifestyles, will be identified and reviewed according to their level of impact and uncertainty. The key factors identified in this manner and their projections are plotted using a morphological analysis in order to construct several distinct scenarios. A panel of experts will participate in order to support the refinement of these scenarios and to provide the necessary inputs.

The impact of such qualitative factors on the technical variables, which are predominantly quantitative in nature, will then be taken into account in order to address the aforementioned questions.

ScenAIR2050 survey results (Aug 2023)

The following documentation outlines the main results of the surveys to assess key factors for building explorative future scenarios of the Air Transport System (ATS) in 2050. The objective of the ScenAIR2050 project is to develop qualitative scenarios for the future of the ATS in 2050. The scenarios aim to provide a multi-criteria decision support for the evaluation and optimisation of future technologies developed within the SE²A cluster, as well as to create participatory synergies between the cluster members. The main research question revolves around the possible and plausible developments of a sustainable and energy efficient ATS up to 2050, taking into account not only technological advances but also socio-economic developments.

ScenAIR2050 Scenario Key Factor and their Projections (Mar 2024)

The following documentation contains projections for the 15 Key Factors identified significant based on desk research and surveys within the cluster (see Impact Uncertainty Survey, 2023). Related to the respective key factors the projections are built on current trends, uncertainties and indicators. For each Key Factor two corresponding focal aspects (dimensions) were defined in order to produce at least four distinct projections. The 60 Projections are the foundation for the scenario calculation and allow a diverse range of plausible scenarios.

Please note, that the following projections are directions but by no means forecasts. Based on our research they are plausible development lines, that allow us to explore futures as alternative trajectories for the air transport system.

ScenAIR2050 Booklet (Dec 2024)

The ScenAIR2050 project ended in December 2024. In addition to a research report, we have produced a booklet to present our research results. It is intended to be an easy-to-read account of the process, method and results through storytelling and illustrations.

It describes the project and the resulting four final scenarios for the air transport system in 2050. To complement this, we have developed two personas, Phae and Arik. They are designed to give a better insight into how future users might perceive the development of each of the scenarios' futures.