How will the relationship between the demand for aviation services and e.g. ticket prices evolve into the future? How will external factors such as user’s ecological awareness, intermodality and emergence of new modes of transport affect this dynamic?
To answer these and other future-oriented questions, knowledge and data from different disciplines and stakeholders need to be collected and interpreted in a perspective-oriented way.
The project "Scenarios for Air Transport System in Alternative Futures (ScenAIR2050)" aims to provide a multi-criteria decision support for the assessment and optimisation of future technologies developed within SE²A. This is achieved by updating the scenario analysis compared to previous studies, but with greater consideration of socio-economic, cultural and lifestyle factors.
The objective of the project is to provide sources of identified qualitative trends as well as quantifiable data on external factors that the ICA teams can use in their simulation and optimisation processes. Embedded in the overall picture of European aviation, different futures for an energy-efficient air transport system will be explored and optimised. This provides the cluster partners with additional, often overlooked aspects and perspectives. Considering both qualitative and external factors in simulations and technical choices the future viability of innovative solutions is purported to be enhanced.
As part of the research associated with ICA A, the project takes on the task and focuses on exploring customer-related trends and the interaction with 1) airlines, 2) airport management, 3) global and regional economies, 4) politics and legal regulations, and 5) ecological conditions of the future.
Since implementation of targeted innovations in the cluster for short, middle and long range aircrafts will likely impose surcharges to the ticket prices, it is of importance for SE²A research body to adjust their design-decisions with various paradigms of airline businesses and customers in perspective from 2030 onwards.
Thus, among other things, an in-depth investigation of micro-level scenarios on the relationship between ticket prices and aviation demand on the one hand and changes in mobility behaviour (compared to the status quo assuming that the intended cluster targets are met) in the PESTLE+ scenarios on the other hand will be conducted.
