Scenarios to Promote Sustainable Futures of Contested Marine Areas


The project is a contribution to the DAM mission "Protection and sustainable use of marine spaces" ("Schutz und nachhaltige Nutzung mariner Räume")  and addresses mission theme III "Model-based investigations of future use scenarios". The CoastalFutures project develops and simulates future use scenarios in the North and Baltic Seas, including coastal areas and estuaries. It examines the effectiveness of current protection measures and develops new management options together with stakeholders from administration, industry and the public. The project focuses on climate impacts and land use pressures from (1) offshore renewable energy generation, (2) fisheries, (3) nature-based coastal protection, and (4) land eutrophication. Future development of the maritime sector is outlined based on national and EU strategies, taking into account potential technological trends and operational innovations. Global scenarios are adapted to regional and sectoral contexts, and translated into spatially explicit future scenarios for selected management sectors. To assess ecosystem impacts from climate change and use of coastal and marine spaces and resources, a novel, coupled, spatially explicit, and cross-scale ecosystem modeling framework is being developed that allows us to examine physical, chemical, and biological impacts while accounting for remote effects and connectivity. This modeling framework, which links and integrates national institutional developments and expertise, is the central tool for examining management and spatial planning scenarios and their assessment. Together with representatives of maritime management and stakeholders from business and industry, conflicts of interest are identified, possible protection concepts are developed, the effectiveness of management options in climate change is investigated, and their economic impacts are evaluated.