The study examines whether autocratic governments can increase their popularity through cash transfers. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led Russia to postpone the national referendum that allowed President Putin to stay in office, and the government introduced unconditional cash transfers to families with children. Using a difference-in-differences design, the authors compare the political attitudes of recipients and similar non-recipients before and after the payments.
The results show that the transfers substantially increased approval of Putin and support for extending his presidential terms. The effect was short-lived and faded within about four months. A comparison with the 2018 election shows that pro-family rhetoric alone, without cash, did not generate comparable support. The findings suggest that autocrats can use transfers to gain a temporary boost in legitimacy, but not lasting loyalty.
