The SP 2 "Meteorology and Climate Change" (University of Cologne) is linked to all subprojects in the management system. At the University of Cologne weather and climate information (include precipitation, temperature, current evaporation (calculated), air humidity, wind, radiation or sunshine duration) will be created as meteorological data series for the current situation (past to present) and for the projected future (approx. 2040-2070) by using the most up-to-date methods available. To do this, a meteorological database from monitoring data, available from the region and from international databases, is collected in a first step in cooperation with vietnamese climate researchers. With this data, the climate and the climate variability (including extreme value analysis) will be analyzed. Following that, a statistic-dynamic downscaling with CCLM for the Thi Vai basin and the mangrove area is conducted. This long-term data series then will be processed by a further refinement using a probabilistic regionalization in a way that in particular the water budget and quality modelling in the SP 3, groundwater modelling in SP 4, the analysis of sea level in SP 7, and investigations of the mangrove ecosystem in SP 5 can be performed. Particular emphasis is placed on an appropriate spatial and temporal resolution of the climate data, as well as on quantitative and qualitative precision regarding the map projection. Hence, a relevant research focus is the quantification of uncertainty of scenario data by taking into account the different meteorological regional models and various greenhouse gas scenarios. The meteorological data sets (incl. metainformation) will be provided to SP 9. With regards on the management system to be developed, the partners will ensure the integration of regional adapted tools for extreme value analysis and statistical regionalization.
Together with its Vietnamese partner University of Applied Science, Hochschule Ostwestfalen und Lippe, carries out another important work package on air pollutant modelling for the research area. The assessment of air quality with increasing air pollution as a result of the population and industrial growth provides the basis for the deployment of technologies to improve environmental and living conditions in the coastal region.
Phan, V.T., Fink, A.H., Ngo-Duc, T., Trinh, T.L., Pinto, J.G., van der Linden, R., Schubert, D. (2014): Observed climate variations and change in Vietnam. In: Meon G., Pätsch M., Phuoc N.V., Quan N.H. (eds.) (2014): EWATEC-COAST: Technologies for Environmental and Water Protection of Coastal Zones in Vietnam. Contributions to 4th International Conference for Environment and Natural Resources, ICENR 2014. Cuvillier, Göttingen, Germany. ISSN: 2363-7218. ISBN: 978-3-95404-852-6.
Fink, A.H., Phan, V.T., Pinto, J.G., van der Linden, R., Schubert, D., Trinh, T.L., Ngo-Duc, T. (2014): Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam. In: Meon G., Pätsch M., Phuoc N.V., Quan N.H. (eds.) (2014): EWATEC-COAST: Technologies for Environmental and Water Protection of Coastal Zones in Vietnam. Contributions to 4th International Conference for Environment and Natural Resources, ICENR 2014. Cuvillier, Göttingen, Germany. ISSN: 2363-7218. ISBN: 978-3-95404-852-6.
Massmeyer, K., Ho, B.Q., Ngoc, C.M., Schubert, D. (2014): Modelling of atmospheric dispersion and deposition in industrial areas - Comparison of different modelling approaches -. In: Meon G., Pätsch M., Phuoc N.V., Quan N.H. (eds.) (2014): EWATEC-COAST: Technologies for Environmental and Water Protection of Coastal Zones in Vietnam. Contributions to 4th International Conference for Environment and Natural Resources, ICENR 2014. Cuvillier, Göttingen, Germany. ISSN: 2363-7218. ISBN: 978-3-95404-852-6.
van der Linden, R., Fink, A.H., Pinto, J.G., Phan, V.T., Kiladis, G.N. (2016): Modulation of Daily Rainfall in Southern Vietnam by the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves. Journal of Climate 29 (16), 5801-5820; https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0911.1
van der Linden, R., Fink, A.H., Phan-Van, T., Trinh-Tuan, L. (2016): Synoptic-Dynamic Analysis of Early Dry-Season Rainfall Events in the Vietnamese Central Highlands. Monthly Weather Review 144 (4), 1509-1527, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0265.1
Schubert, D., van der Linden, R., Reyers, M., Fink, A. H., Massmeyer, K. and Pinto, J. G. (2017): Statistical-dynamical downscaling of precipitation for Vietnam: methodology and evaluation for the recent climate. International Journal of Climatology 37 (11), 4211-4228; https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5062
van der Linden, R., Fink, A.H., Pinto, J.G., Phan-Van, T (2017): The Dynamics of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Northeastern Vietnam in 2015 and its Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble prediction System. Weather and Forecasting 32 (3), 1041-1056; https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0142.1