Sub Project 7: Coastal Protection

The focus of SP 7 "coastal protection" (University of Siegen) is about coastal hydrological system and risk analysis, taking into account any climatic and anthropogenic changes in the study area. The systems analysis is essential to develop a sustainable coastal protection strategy. Like in the other sub projects that are dealing with model techniques, initially it is necessary to collect and edit vast quantities of data like water level, swell and discharge data. These are used as boundary conditions for the models of SP 3, 4 and 5. Based on this time series analysis of the "Meas Sea Level (MSL)" and extreme value statistical analysis of inland time series of water levels in the Dong Nai river basin will be derived. The latter are transferred to the Thi Vai River basin. Both analyses are statistically superimposed for the purpose of identifying seaside and inland extreme situations and creating forecasts. The results are incorporated as boundary conditions in the hydrodynamic flooding calculations of extreme events (landfall of tropical cyclones) in the coastal zone. For future extreme events flood zones, the risk to the residents and the monetary and intangible (environmental) damage will be estimated. For this purpose specific damage values will be set up together with Vietnamese partners in the region. A risk analysis set up for the areas of investigation, will combine the damage with the probabilities of occurrence of extreme events and quantitative risk characteristics such as the annual hazard and potential for damage for the level 1 "past to present" and level 2 "Future without measures" determined. These parameters are used for a first development of technical and natural protection technologies. This work is strongly supported by Vietnamese partners at the National University of HCMC.

The integrative analysis of overlapping inland and sea-side extreme events, but also the modeling of the protective effect of existing mangrove forests to the reduction of the spread of storm surges in the coastal zone is of scientific challenge.