The uncharted way to an uncertain future: exploratory modelling in road infrastructure

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Prof Alejandro Tirachini has published a new paper, together with Sander Mooren and Andreas Hartmann from the University of Twente, on the use of Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) concerning future road infrastructure.

Using a large ensemble of scenarios and simulation, this research shows that EMA can model long-term infrastructure performance and road traffic levels at both regional scale (in the Netherlands) and local scale (by analysing the performance of individual links like tunnels and bridges), for a time period spanning from today until 2050. Variables that explain long-term variation in traffic levels include the uptake of teleworking, the share of loaded trucks in the total traffic and the GDP. 

Link to the full paper:

Mooren, S., Hartmann, A., & Tirachini, A. (2026). The uncharted way to an uncertain future: exploratory modelling in road infrastructure. Transportation Planning and Technology, open access: https://doi.org/10.1080/03081060.2026.2649030

 

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