Hosse, R. S.; Becker, U.; Manz, H.:
Grey Systems Theory Time Series Prediction applied to Road Traffic Safety in Germany.
In: IFAC, Hrsg.: 14th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems, Instanbul, Turkey, Mai 2016.
Although Road Traffic Safety in Germany has improved over the last four decades, nowadays
more than 3000 people per year die in a car accident. Due to that the European Union signed the Vision
Zero aiming to zero deaths until 2020. This goal seems hard to achieve investigating latest data on road
traffic accidents. Furthermore it is yet unclear what provisions should be undertaken by government or
industry to improve safety. This research applies a Grey Systems Theory MGM(1,4) in order to predict
the development of road traffic accidents in Germany until 2025 based on the market diffusion of electronic
stability program (ESP). Grey Systems Theory has shown impressive results in various applications
and has the benefit to correlate multiple time series. The findings exemplify that only minor improvements
until 2025 are to expect, having around 2000 fatalities per year, and more provisions must be
made to achieve the Vision Zero.